Survey of Professional Forecasters (PF)

December round of Forecasters survey expects improvement in growth and inflation to reach 4% by Q2: FY21.

Published bi-monthly by RBI since June 2014 (28th Round). Updated till September 2021 (61st Round) (Published on December 5th, 2019).

Recent Data Trend

The 61st round of Professional Forecasters (PF) survey highlights the maximum probability for real GDP growth will likely be in the range of 5-5.4% year-on-year (YoY) in fiscal year 2020 (Apr'19-March'20) and it further expects growth to be in the range 6-6.4% YoY in FY21. The growth-pickup is expected on the back of upticks in industrial and services sector activity.

On the inflation front, the PF expects headline inflation to rise to 4.7% YoY in Q3 FY20 but, it projects the median headline inflation to moderate to 4% YoY in Q2 FY21. Even the core CPI inflation is expected to remain at the same 4% mark till first half of FY21. The RBI has already cut its' policy rate four times so far in this fiscal year by 110bps, with the aim of maintaining the CPI inflation within the range of 4% medium-term target.

In our view, with risks to fiscal slippage mounting, households pessimism about current economic conditions worsening, and a slowdown in growth rate (Real GDP growth slowed down to 4.5% YoY in Jul-Sep'19 quarter), pressure continues to mount for the current government to implement measures that will help improve domestic demand conditions.

Brief Overview

Survey of Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators represents views of independent professional forecasters on major macroeconomic indicators of short term to medium term economic developments. RBI has been conducting the survey since September 2007 on a quarterly basis and on a bi-monthly basis since June 2014. Forecasters affiliated with institutions that conduct regular research on the Indian economy, including investment banks and credit rating agencies, are invited to participate in this survey. It is done through a questionnaire responded by approx 25-30 forecasters/ panellists in each survey. The survey covers component-wise detailed forecasts of GDP growth, inflation, capital formation, consumption, expenditure, export, import, etc and is summarised in terms of their median forecasts, along with quarterly paths for key variables.

For more information, please visit the official government website.

Next Release Date: Feburary 7th, 2020