Survey of Professional Forecasters (PF)

Professional forecasters expect growth to firm up and core inflation to remain below 5% mark in FY20.

Published bi-monthly by RBI since June 2014 (28th Round). Updated till June 2020 (58th Round) (Published on June 6th, 2019).

Recent Data Trend

As per the 57th round of Professional Forecasters (PF) survey, the real GDP is expected to moderate and grow by 7.3% YoY in 2019-20. The survey has assigned the maximum probability for GDP growth to remain in the range of 7% - 7.4% YoY in both 2018-19 and 2019-20. On account of increase in industrial and service sector activities, the survey expects the Gross Value Added (GVA) to grow by 7.1% in 2019-20.

On the inflation front, the PF expects the CPI inflation to moderate to 2.4% YoY in Q4 2018-19 and increase gradually to reach 4.2% YoY by the last quarter of 2019-20. The median headline inflation forecasts in the 57th round has been increased to 4.2% YoY by last quarter of 2019-20. Even the core CPI inflation is expected to be increase to stay above 5.3% mark in Q4 2018-19 but is likely to remain below 5% till Q4 2019-20.

With growing concern over slowdown in growth pickup, the RBI once again reduced the interest rates by another 25 bps in its first bi-monthly policy meet of 2019 keeping its policy repo rate at 6% from 6.25% in February.

For the external sector, the PF lowered its export growth projections for 2019-20 by 2 percentage points to 5.6% YoY. Similarly, the survey forecasts a deceleration in the import growth to 6% YoY for 2019-20. Thus, the current account deficit (CAD) projection was revised downwards and is expected at 2.3% of GDP for 2019-20. The reasons for lowering of export and import projections mainly comes due to growing uncertainty in the global environment.

Brief Overview

Survey of Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators represents views of independent professional forecasters on major macroeconomic indicators of short term to medium term economic developments. RBI has been conducting the survey since September 2007 on a quarterly basis and on a bi-monthly basis since June 2014. Forecasters affiliated with institutions that conduct regular research on the Indian economy, including investment banks and credit rating agencies, are invited to participate in this survey. It is done through a questionnaire responded by approx 25-30 forecasters/ panellists in each survey. The survey covers component-wise detailed forecasts of GDP growth, inflation, capital formation, consumption, expenditure, export, import, etc and is summarised in terms of their median forecasts, along with quarterly paths for key variables.

For more information, please visit the official government website.

Next Release Date: August 7th, 2019