Survey of Professional Forecasters (PF) India

Professional forecasters expect strong growth and lower inflation in the future.

Published bi-monthly by RBI since June 2014 (28th Round). Updated till June 2019 (54th Round). (Published on October 5th, 2018)

Recent Data Trend

According to the 54th round of Professional Forecasters (PF) survey, the real GDP is likely to grow by 7.4% year-on-year (YoY) in FY19 (Apr'18-Mar'19). The PF also expects the growth to further accelerate to 7.5% YoY in FY20. The growth pick-up is expected on the back of higher private consumption.

The agriculture and allied activities sector are expected to grow at 3.9% YoY in FY19. Industrial and service sectors are expected to accelerate economic activity in the country with a growth of 7.7% and 7.9% respectively.

On the inflation front, the PF expects headline CPI inflation to rise from 4.1% in Q2FY19 to around 5.1% in Q2 FY20. Along with this, the risks of rising inflation as pointed by core CPI (excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco) continues to persist. The PF expects the core inflation to decline but will remain above the inflation target of 4% YoY till Q2FY19. The core CPI is expected to fall from 6% YoY in Q2FY19 to 5% YoY in Q2FY20.

Despite the globe trade tensions, the PF raised their projections for both export and import growth in FY19 to 10.4% YoY and 14.3% YoY, respectively. The Current Account Deficit (CAD) is expected to remain at around 2.5% of GDP in FY19 and FY20.

In our view, there is much to be confident on the improvement in the economic growth, however, upside risks to inflation remain alive in the form of higher MSPs and elevated global crude oil prices. We can expect RBI to raise the policy repo rate by the end of FY19 if core inflation rises.

Brief Overview

Survey of Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators represents views of independent professional forecasters on major macroeconomic indicators of short term to medium term economic developments. RBI has been conducting the survey since September 2007 on a quarterly basis and on a bi-monthly basis since June 2014. Forecasters affiliated with institutions that conduct regular research on the Indian economy, including investment banks and credit rating agencies, are invited to participate in this survey. It is done through a questionnaire responded by approx 25-30 forecasters/ panellists in each survey. The survey covers component-wise detailed forecasts of GDP growth, inflation, capital formation, consumption, expenditure, export, import, etc and is summarised in terms of their median forecasts, along with quarterly paths for key variables.

For more information, please visit the official government website.

Next Release Date: December 7, 2018