Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS)

India's consumer confidence shows weakest sentiment in July.

Note: Published bi-monthly by the RBI. Updated till July 2020 (published on August 6, 2020).

Consumer confidence survey was published quarterly by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) before March 2016.

Recent Data Trend

According to RBI's July round of Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS), consumer confidence deteriorated further in July with the current situation index (CSI) recording its all-time low at 53.8. On the bright side, the respondents turned optimistic about the future one year ahead. The future expectation index (FEI) charted back into the positive territory to 105.4 compared to 97.9 in the last survey indicating signs of recovery in the coming year.

Consumer perception of the current economic situation, employment, and own income plunged deeper into the negative zone with a sign of deterioration compared to last round. However, consumers perception of the same one year from now
are positive, and they feel that things will improve in the coming year.

Regarding spending, most respondents reported reduced spending on non-essential items and don't expect it to increase in the coming year. A preference to buy only essentials would only delay the economic recovery, where a large outbreak is already hurting the overall consumer spending and mobility.

On the inflation front, the majority still expect the inflation to increase in the future, with the percentage of respondents expecting it to be 76.4%, a rise from 73.4% in May.

The current consumer confidence dipping further to an all-time low in July reflects the catastrophe brought about by the COVID-19 crisis.

Brief Overview

Consumer confidence survey (CCS) has been conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on a quarterly basis since June 2010 and on a bi-monthly basis since March 2016. The survey obtains information on urban consumer sentiments and captures qualitative responses on questions pertaining to economic conditions, household circumstances, income, spending, prices, etc. For each round of the survey, approx 5400 respondents (aged 21 years and above) are canvassed in six metropolitan cities of Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Kolkata, and Mumbai. The responses are mostly in two parts- current situation as compared to a year ago and expectations a year ahead. Expectations on prices and consumer spending are in three forms: increased, remained the same and decreased or positive, neutral and negative.

To combine the consumer confidence responses on various parameters, two sub-indices are calculated by the RBI: Current Situation Index (CSI) that reflects the current situation as compared to one year ago and Future Expectation Index (FEI) that reflects expectations one year ahead. CSI and FEI are compiled on the basis of net responses on the economic situation, income, spending, employment and the price level for the current period and a year ahead, respectively. CSI/FEI = 100 + Average of Net Responses of the above parameters. CSI and FEI are compiled on the basis of net responses on the economic situation, income, spending, employment and the price level for the current period and a year ahead, respectively. CSI/FEI = 100 + Average of Net Responses of the above parameters. The CSI and the FEI can take values between 0 and 200. An index value over 100 implies that consumers are optimistic about the current/future situation and vice versa.

The responses to the main variables of the survey, viz, income, spending, employment, etc are recorded in terms of percentage. Percentage responses on income and spending are the respondents' own view, i.e, personal income and personal spending.

For more information, please visit the official government website.

Next Release Date:  September, 2020