Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS)

Consumer confidence falls in July 2019 on increasing pessimism over income and employment generation.

Note: Consumer confidence survey was published quarterly by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) before March 2016.

Published bi-monthly by the RBI. Updated till July 2019 (published on July 7, 2019).

Recent Data Trend

According to the July'19 round of the Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS), the consumer confidence continued to witness a falling momentum after gaining traction in the March'19 round of the CCS. The worsening of the CCS was on account of deterioration in sentiments towards increase in income and employment generation.

The current situation index (CSI) continued to be in the pessimistic zone in July’19 by falling to 95.7 from a rise in March’19 at 104.6 as Indians turned pessimistic about the rise in income and employment generation levels. With the increasing fear of global as well as domestic economic slowdown, sentiments towards the rise in income worsened. On the other hand, the current perception towards consumer spending remains buoyant. The sentiment regarding the future as depicted by the future expectations index (FEI), slipped by about 4 points from 128.4 in May’19 to 124.8 in July’19.

Due to the ongoing geo-political tensions and the fear of a global economic slowdown, the residents are expecting the economic conditions to deteriorate further. With Reserve Bank announcing a cut in policy rates for the fourth consecutive time, the expectations of the residents are buoyant that consumer spending would experience a boost in the future.

Brief Overview

Consumer confidence survey (CCS) has been conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on a quarterly basis since June 2010 and on a bi-monthly basis since March 2016. The survey obtains information on urban consumer sentiments and captures qualitative responses on questions pertaining to economic conditions, household circumstances, income, spending, prices, etc. For each round of the survey, approx 5400 respondents (aged 21 years and above) are canvassed in six metropolitan cities of Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Kolkata, and Mumbai. The responses are mostly in two parts- current situation as compared to a year ago and expectations a year ahead. Expectations on prices and consumer spending are in three forms: increased, remained the same and decreased or positive, neutral and negative.

To combine the consumer confidence responses on various parameters, two sub-indices are calculated by the RBI: Current Situation Index (CSI) that reflects the current situation as compared to one year ago and Future Expectation Index (FEI) that reflects expectations one year ahead. CSI and FEI are compiled on the basis of net responses on the economic situation, income, spending, employment and the price level for the current period and a year ahead, respectively. CSI/FEI = 100 + Average of Net Responses of the above parameters. CSI and FEI are compiled on the basis of net responses on the economic situation, income, spending, employment and the price level for the current period and a year ahead, respectively. CSI/FEI = 100 + Average of Net Responses of the above parameters. The CSI and the FEI can take values between 0 and 200. An index value over 100 implies that consumers are optimistic about the current/future situation and vice versa.

The responses to the main variables of the survey, viz, income, spending, employment, etc are recorded in terms of percentage. Percentage responses on income and spending are the respondents' own view, i.e, personal income and personal spending.

For more information, please visit the official government website.

Next Release Date:  August 7th, 2019