Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS) India

RBI Survey shows continued waning consumer sentiments in its Nov'18 round.

Note: Consumer confidence survey was published quarterly by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) before March 2016.

Published bi-monthly by the RBI. Updated to the month of November 2018 (published on December 5, 2018)

Recent Data Trend

According to the November round of Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS), a large number of consumers (53.6%) don't expect their economic conditions to improve one year from now. Sentiment towards the future as depicted by the future expectations index (FEI) declined to 120 in November from 121.1 in September, due to lower optimism on employment and household spending scenarios.

With regards to employment, the sentiment towards the current period and the future employment situation saw a decline. Roughly 53.5% of the respondents feel their employment situation won't improve in one year period time. Around 47.2% of the respondents conformed that the employment in current period has decreased compared to one year ago. Even in the previous round, nearly 45.5% of the respondents had conformed to the view that employment prospects have worsened in the current period compared to a year ago.

On household spending, there was a moderation in response to households' spending as nearly 73% and 77% said that their current household expenses have gone up and will increase in the next one year, respectively. Households agreed that their expenses will decline as there will be cutbacks expected in expenditure on non-essential items. One possible reason for this could be due to the decline in the perception about the current economic condition.

In contrast, respondents' assessment (29.9%) on the income situation for the current year improved. They have similar expectations of the future with over 59% of the respondents reckoning that their future incomes in one year period will improve.

Consumers continued to remain pessimistic about the price level with more than 88.3% of them stating an increase in the current price level and 80.2% of them expecting the prices to increase in the next one year.

Overall, consumers are not happy with the current economic conditions. The Current Situation Index (CSI) has remained in the pessimistic zone. In Nov'18, CSI fell to 93.9 from 94.8 in the previous round. If this overall sentiment continues in the next few rounds, it will raise an alarm as the government needs to win over people before the upcoming elections to get a second term. Perceptions about the current situations seem to be worse than what they were in March 2014 (Overall CSI was 105). This could also impact the BJP's electoral results.

Brief Overview

Consumer confidence survey (CCS) has been conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on a quarterly basis since June 2010 and on a bi-monthly basis since March 2016. The survey obtains information on urban consumer sentiments and captures qualitative responses on questions pertaining to economic conditions, household circumstances, income, spending, prices, etc. For each round of the survey, approx 5400 respondents (aged 21 years and above) are canvassed in six metropolitan cities of Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Kolkata, and Mumbai. The responses are mostly in two parts- current situation as compared to a year ago and expectations a year ahead. Expectations on prices and consumer spending are in three forms: increased, remained the same and decreased or positive, neutral and negative.

To combine the consumer confidence responses on various parameters, two sub-indices are calculated by the RBI: Current Situation Index (CSI) that reflects the current situation as compared to one year ago and Future Expectation Index (FEI) that reflects expectations one year ahead. CSI and FEI are compiled on the basis of net responses on the economic situation, income, spending, employment and the price level for the current period and a year ahead, respectively. CSI/FEI = 100 + Average of Net Responses of the above parameters. CSI and FEI are compiled on the basis of net responses on the economic situation, income, spending, employment and the price level for the current period and a year ahead, respectively. CSI/FEI = 100 + Average of Net Responses of the above parameters. The CSI and the FEI can take values between 0 and 200. An index value over 100 implies that consumers are optimistic about the current/future situation and vice versa.

The responses to the main variables of the survey, viz, income, spending, employment, etc are recorded in terms of percentage. Percentage responses on income and spending are the respondents' own view, i.e, personal income and personal spending.

For more information, please visit the official government website.

Next Release Date: February 5, 2019