Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Higher food prices led to rise in retail inflation in August.

Published monthly by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI). Updated till August 2019 (Published on September 12th, 2019).
Note: The seasonally adjusted series has been obtained using the Census X-13 procedure with the X-11 method of seasonal adjustment.
Note: The core CPI excludes food and fuel group from the headline CPI. The effective core CPI excludes pan tobacco & intoxicants and housing from core CPI.
Note: CPI-Services includes health, education, personal care, recreation, and amusement services. CPI-Goods is CPI excl. CPI services.

Recent Data Trend

India's CPI inflation increased to a 10-month high of  3.21% year-on-year (YoY) in August 2019 from 3.15% YoY in July 2019. Retail inflation has continued to remain below RBI's median inflation target of 4% for more than a year. The rise in headline inflation was on account of food prices which rose to 2.3% YoY, highest in 15-months in contrast with 0.3% YoY in the comparable month last year.

The inflation in the food segment, which constitutes nearly half of the inflation basket rose to 2.9% YoY, 0.9% YoY higher than a year-ago period. Elevated food inflation was mainly because of higher vegetable prices which rose to 6.8% YoY, highest since July '19 compared to a deflation of 7% in the comparable month last year. On the other hand, fruit prices contracted for straight nine-months registering a deflation of 0.8% YoY in August as against 3.6% YoY in the comparable month last year. Inflation in pulses and cereals remains muted.

The rise in consumer inflation was capped by falling crude oil prices globally. Due to falling crude oil prices internationally, inflation in fuel and light contracted to -1.6% YoY in August compared to 8% YoY a year ago. The global crude oil prices fell to $56/bbl during August benefitting the domestic economy.

The core inflation (CPI inflation excl. food and fuel) declined marginally to 4.3% YoY in August '19 after having registered a rise of 6% YoY in the comparable month last year.

We believe that a rise in food inflation was extensively due to the flood-like situation and uneven distribution of rainfall in the several parts of the country. Going forward we expect the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates in the next Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Committee meeting to be held in October to further boost the weak and falling domestic demand.

Brief Overview

Consumer Price Index in India is published monthly by the Central Statistical Organization (CSO). Consumer Price Indices (CPI) measure changes over time in the general level of prices of goods and services that households acquire for consumption. CPI is a macroeconomic indicator of inflation and used as a tool by central banks for inflation targeting and monitoring price stability, and as deflators in the national accounts. CPI is also used for indexing dearness allowance to employees for the increase in prices.

The data we present above is in the base year 2012. The Field Operations Division of NSSO, the specified State/UT Directorates of Economics and Statistics and 1181 selected villages of the Department of Posts collect monthly price data from 1114 markets in 310 chosen towns.

For more information, please visit the official government website.

CPI- Sub-groups

CPI- Quarterly

Note: The seasonally adjusted series has been obtained using the Census X-13 procedure with the X-11 method of seasonal adjustment

CPI- Industrial Workers

CPI- Annual

Next Release Date: September 12, 2019