Consumer Price Index (CPI) of India

Brace up for another rate hike as retail inflation reaches 5% YoY in June

Published monthly by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI). Updated until June 2018. (Published on July 12th, 2018) 
Note: The seasonally adjusted series has been obtained using the Census X-13 procedure with the X-11 method of seasonal adjustment

Recent Data Trend 

India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to a 5-month high of 5% year on year (YoY) in Jun'18 from 4.9% YoY in the previous month. India has been facing the rising heat of inflation since the past few months. The inflation has continued to remain above the RBI's medium-term inflation target of 4% for the eighth consecutive month. The rising oil prices are surely the factors driving inflation in India. The crude oil prices have risen by almost 19 % since Dec'17 raising fuel inflation to 7.1% YoY in Jun'18.

The housing inflation has remained above the 8% YoY level since Dec'17. In Jun'17, housing inflation stood at 8.4% YoY, unchanged from the previous month.

Even the inflation excl. food and fuel also known as core inflation, continued its rise reaching a 4-year high of 6.5% YoY. The higher commodity prices and building up of input price pressures as highlighted in the Industrial outlook survey by RBI, resulted in core inflation remaining elevated since the beginning of this year.

All this resulted in inflation reaching a 7-quarter high of 4.8% YoY during Apr-Jun'18, within the RBI's revised inflation expectations of 4.8-4.9% for the first half of FY19.

We believe that inflation has surely become a great concern for the RBI amidst deteriorating CAD (1.9% of GDP FY2018), and a weakening rupee (falling to its all-time low of 69 against the USD recently). The RBI tried arresting the fall of the rupee by intervening in the forex market and reducing its forex reserves by 16 billion USD since the beginning of this fiscal year. We expect the RBI to go for another round of rate hike as early as Aug.

Brief Overview

Consumer Price Index in India is published monthly by the Central Statistical Organization (CSO). Consumer Price Indices (CPI) measure changes over time in the general level of prices of goods and services that households acquire for consumption. CPI is a macroeconomic indicator of inflation and used as a tool by central banks for inflation targeting and monitoring price stability, and as deflators in the national accounts. CPI is also used for indexing dearness allowance to employees for the increase in prices.

The data we present above is in the base year 2012. The Field Operations Division of NSSO, the specified State/UT Directorates of Economics and Statistics and 1181 selected villages of the Department of Posts collect monthly price data from 1114 markets in 310 chosen towns. 

For more information visit the official government website.

Consumer Price Inflation, Sub-groups

Consumer Price Index-Quarterly

Note: The seasonally adjusted series has been obtained using the Census X-13 procedure with the X-11 method of seasonal adjustment

Consumer Price Index-Annual

Next Release Date: August 13th, 2018