Consumer Price Index (CPI)

CPI inflation breaches RBI target in October led by spike in food prices.

Published monthly by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI). Updated till October 2019 (Published on November 13th, 2019).
Note: The seasonally adjusted series has been obtained using the Census X-13 procedure with the X-11 method of seasonal adjustment.
Note: The core CPI excludes food and fuel group from the headline CPI. The effective core CPI excludes pan tobacco & intoxicants and housing from core CPI.
Note: CPI-Services includes health, education, personal care, recreation, and amusement services. CPI-Goods is CPI excl. CPI services.

Recent Data Trend

India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) shot up to a 16-month high of 4.7% YoY in October 2019, breaching RBI's medium-term inflation target of 4% for the first time in 15 months. The CPI inflation stood at 4% YoY in the previous month. The spike in retail inflation was primarily led by a surge in food inflation.

The food inflation, as measured by the consumer food price index (CFPI), rose to a three-year high of 7.9% YoY in October, mainly due to soaring prices of vegetables, fruits, and pulses. The inflation in food prices has been on a rising trend for the past eight months due to supply disruption led by delayed and uneven monsoon across the country. The majority of the contribution to the increase in food prices came from the rural economy as inflation in the same has doubled in a month from 3.1% YoY in September to 6.3% YoY in October.

On the other hand, the inflation in miscellaneous, services, pan, tobacco, and intoxicants led to a moderation in core inflation to 3.6% YoY as against 4.2% YoY in the last month. Thus, indicating the prevailing subdued consumption demand in the economy.

Given that CPI has breached the RBI's medium-term target of 4% and is in sharp contrast with the shrinking industrial activity in the economy, this may complicate the monetary policy decision in December. The likely rate cut decision will depend upon the flexibility of RBI in dealing with the retail inflation and the July-September quarter GDP number expected to be released later this month.

Brief Overview

Consumer Price Index in India is published monthly by the Central Statistical Organization (CSO). Consumer Price Indices (CPI) measure changes over time in the general level of prices of goods and services that households acquire for consumption. CPI is a macroeconomic indicator of inflation and used as a tool by central banks for inflation targeting and monitoring price stability, and as deflators in the national accounts. CPI is also used for indexing dearness allowance to employees for the increase in prices.

The data we present above is in the base year 2012. The Field Operations Division of NSSO, the specified State/UT Directorates of Economics and Statistics and 1181 selected villages of the Department of Posts collect monthly price data from 1114 markets in 310 chosen towns.

For more information, please visit the official government website.

CPI- Sub-groups

CPI- Quarterly

Note: The seasonally adjusted series has been obtained using the Census X-13 procedure with the X-11 method of seasonal adjustment

CPI- Industrial Workers

CPI- Annual

Next Release Date: December 12, 2019