Consumer Price Index (CPI) of India

Consumer Price Index for the month of Feb'19 reaches a 4-month high of 2.57% YoY.

Published monthly by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI). Updated until February 2019. (Published on March 12th, 2019) 
Note: The seasonally adjusted series has been obtained using the Census X-13 procedure with the X-11 method of seasonal adjustment.
Note: The core CPI excludes food and fuel group from the headline CPI. The effective core CPI excludes pan tobacco & intoxicants and housing from core CPI.
Note: CPI-Services includes health, education, personal care, recreation, and amusement services. CPI-Goods is CPI excl. CPI services.

Recent Data Trend

India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to a 4-month high of 2.57% year-on-year (YoY) in Feb'19 after reaching a 19-month low of 2.05% YoY in Jan'19. The retail inflation as measured by CPI was primarily aided by low food prices. Food inflation (as gauged by Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI)) stood at a negative of 0.7% YoY. The increase in retail inflation comes just after the RBI lowered the policy repo rate in a surprise move followed by a deceleration in GDP growth rate to 6.6% YoY in Oct-Dec'18 quarter. 

By sub-groups, housing inflation continued to decline to 5.1% YoY in Feb'19, lowest since the past 19 months indicative of the declining impact of Housing Rent Allowance (HRA) implementation under the 7th Pay Commission. To add to this, benign fuel inflation of 1.2% YoY along with deflation in food prices may keep the rural demand subdued.

Within the food category, there was deflation in prices of fruits, vegetables and pulses. Prices of vegetables have been in the deflationary trend for the second consecutive month with prices contracting to -7.7% YoY in Feb'19. Clothing and footwear inflation also continued to decline and came at a record low of 2.7% in Feb’19 as against 4.9% in Feb’18. The other two groups miscellaneous and pan, tobacco and intoxicants saw an increase in inflation to 6% YoY and 5.5% YoY, respectively. All this has resulted in the core inflation to moderate albeit marginally to a one-year low of 5.4% YoY in Feb'19.

We believe, if in the coming months of this fiscal year the deflation in food prices subsides, then the retail inflation could rise upwards but remain within the RBI's target. This level of retail and core inflation will likely give space for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut repo rate by another 25 bps in the April'19 policy meet.

Brief Overview

Consumer Price Index in India is published monthly by the Central Statistical Organization (CSO). Consumer Price Indices (CPI) measure changes over time in the general level of prices of goods and services that households acquire for consumption. CPI is a macroeconomic indicator of inflation and used as a tool by central banks for inflation targeting and monitoring price stability, and as deflators in the national accounts. CPI is also used for indexing dearness allowance to employees for the increase in prices.

The data we present above is in the base year 2012. The Field Operations Division of NSSO, the specified State/UT Directorates of Economics and Statistics and 1181 selected villages of the Department of Posts collect monthly price data from 1114 markets in 310 chosen towns.

For more information, please visit the official government website.

CPI- Sub-groups

CPI- Quarterly

Note: The seasonally adjusted series has been obtained using the Census X-13 procedure with the X-11 method of seasonal adjustment

CPI- Industrial Workers

CPI- Annual

Next Release Date: April 12th, 2019