Consumer Price Index (CPI)

November CPI at 3-year high driven by surge in food prices; Core CPI continues to remain low.

Published monthly by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI). Updated till November 2019 (Published on December 12th, 2019).
Note: The seasonally adjusted series has been obtained using the Census X-13 procedure with the X-11 method of seasonal adjustment.
Note: The core CPI excludes food and fuel group from the headline CPI. The effective core CPI excludes pan tobacco & intoxicants and housing from core CPI.
Note: CPI-Services includes health, education, personal care, recreation, and amusement services. CPI-Goods is CPI excl. CPI services.

Recent Data Trend

Indias' Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rises to almost a three year high at 5.54% YoY driven by increasing food prices. On the other hand, the prices of the other components in the CPI basket either remained constant or increased only marginally. Thus, the pace of growth in core CPI continues to remain low.

The prices of vegetables, which constitute about 13 percent of weightage in the food basket increased by about 35% YoY. Ironically, a year ago, there were concerns about deflation in food basket when the vegetable price index was witnessing a negative growth rate.

The increase in inflation is driven by the food prices, as a result of disruption in the agricultural production due to uneven monsoon and floods across the country during the Kharif cropping season (July-October) this year. We expect the food prices to moderate in the coming few months if there is no disruption in the Rabi cropping season (October-March).

Along with this, the imports of staples like onions by the central government would increase the supply of the same, which in turn is likely to normalise the food prices in the coming months. Hence, the spike in CPI could be short-lived.

Therefore, with deteriorating economic growth and contraction in industrial activities, once the food prices subside in the coming months, the RBI might ease its' policy rate in the upcoming meeting in February 2020 to revive the economy

Brief Overview

Consumer Price Index in India is published monthly by the Central Statistical Organization (CSO). Consumer Price Indices (CPI) measure changes over time in the general level of prices of goods and services that households acquire for consumption. CPI is a macroeconomic indicator of inflation and used as a tool by central banks for inflation targeting and monitoring price stability, and as deflators in the national accounts. CPI is also used for indexing dearness allowance to employees for the increase in prices.

The data we present above is in the base year 2012. The Field Operations Division of NSSO, the specified State/UT Directorates of Economics and Statistics and 1181 selected villages of the Department of Posts collect monthly price data from 1114 markets in 310 chosen towns.

For more information, please visit the official government website.

CPI- Sub-groups

CPI- Quarterly

Note: The seasonally adjusted series has been obtained using the Census X-13 procedure with the X-11 method of seasonal adjustment

CPI- Industrial Workers

CPI- Annual

Next Release Date: January 13, 2020