India Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Government on strong footing as India retains the crown of the fastest growing economy.

Published monthly by CSO under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Updated until the April-June 2018 quarter. (Published on August 31, 2018)

Note: The data post-2011 Q2 is in the base year 2011-12. For data, before 2011 Q2 we (IMA) have used yearly growth rates for those quarters, obtained from a series on a different base year. For example, the GDP of 2011 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (on 2004-05 base year) gives us the GDP of 2010 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year).

Recent Data Trend

India seems to be recovering strongly boasting a real GDP growth of 8.2% year-on-year (YoY) during Apr-Jun'18 (Q2 2018), the fastest pace of expansion in over two years. The Indian economy recovered from the pits of 5.6% YoY growth in the corresponding period last year to more than 8% growth at present making India the fastest growing economy in the world. The economic growth in Q2 2018 beat the market expectations of 7.6% YoY. (Bloomberg Poll).

On the demand side, the strong consumption and healthy growth in investment propelled economic growth. The private consumption grew by 8.6% YoY, the highest in the last six quarters. The investment also rose at a double-digit pace of 10% YoY. 

On the supply side, the output growth, as depicted by the gross value added (GVA at basic constant prices ), rose to 8% YoY. Both the industry(10.3% YoY) and services sector (7.4% YoY) supported the output growth.

The double-digit growth in manufacturing (13.5% YoY) and strong growth in construction (8.7% YoY) pushed the industrial growth, while growth in the financial services segment (6.5%) helped services sector to report a robust growth in Q2 2018, expanding by 7.4% YoY in Q2 2018.  In addition, the growth in agriculture also recovered to 5.3% YoY, the fastest expansion in the last one year. 

Although the growth seems robust with consumption and investment both engines firing, the headline growth numbers need to be considered with a grain of salt as they are inflated due to the favourable base-effect.

This is a welcome news and might instil some confidence in the foreign investors who have been shying away from India since the beginning of this year leading to capital outflows worth Rs.398 billion (Jan'18-Jun'18) amidst global trade tensions, monetary tightening by Fed and the strengthening US economy.

The rupee which seems to be facing pressure recently breached the 71 mark against the dollar making the rupee one of the worst performing Asian currencies. The quick and robust recovery in growth will support the macroeconomic fundamentals of the economy and likely invite capital flows to the country.

Further, the RBI also expects strong growth recovery on the back of infrastructure development in the economy. RBI expects 7.4% YoY growth in  2018-19. We feel, at present the economy is on a solid footing with only inflation a primary concern amidst soaring current account deficit and elevated crude oil prices (at USD 77-78 per barrel) which exacerbate the pressure on rupee.

The stronger than expected growth recovery will help the present government to counter-attack the opposition that had been criticising the Modi government for slowing down the growth with demonetisation followed by GST. With stronger growth and focus on infrastructure development set for the year, the present government seems poised to effectively tackle the united opposition in the general elections of 2019.

Brief Overview

Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product of India at constant (2011-12) prices is computed using expenditure approach to output. Under this approach, the output or GDP is the sum of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), government output or Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE), capital formation as indicated by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and Net Exports (Exports minus Imports).

As per UNSNA,1993, Valuables comprise of precious stones, metals, antiques and other valuable collections. Please click here for the detailed definition.

The Central Statistical Office under the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MOSPI) releases the official estimates of  GDP.  The National Accounts Division (NAD) under CSO is responsible for the preparation of national accounts, which includes Gross Domestic Product, Government and Private Final Consumption Expenditure, Gross Fixed Capital Formation and other macroeconomic aggregates.

For more information, please visit the official website.

Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (Sector-wise)

Note: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (2011-12=100) shows the value addition at the industry level. All the components have been included. The Agriculture sector represents the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing category; the Industry Sector comprises of Manufacturing, Mining Quarrying, Electricity, Gas Water & Other Utilities and Construction. Services Sector comprises of all the service categories.

Non-government GVA is GVA excluding public administration, defence, and other services.

Next Release Date: November 31st, 2018

Per-Capita GDP of India

Note: To calculate real per capita GDP of India we have used the yearly population estimates of CSO and the yearly GDP of India from 2011-12 to 2016-17. For data, before 2011-12 we (IMA) have used growth rates for those years, obtained from a series on a different base year. For example, The GDP of 2011-12 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (from 2004-05 base year series) gives us the GDP of 2010(on the base of 2011-12). The real per capita GDP is then computed from the rebased data. The GDP deflator, which is the ratio of Real GDP to Nominal GDP is calculated from the extended rebased series of real GDP 2011-12 and nominal GDP.

Nominal GDP-Annual

Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10. with 2011-12 as the base year for the entire series.  

Real GDP- Annual

Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10. with 2011-12 as the base year for the entire series.  

National Savings

Note: Data prior to 2011 is on 2004-05 base year methodology. The data 2011 and onwards is on 2011-12 base year methodology. 
Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10.