India Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Investment propels GDP growth to a five quarter high of 7.2% YoY.

Published monthly by CSO under Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Updated until the October-December 2017 quarter. (Published on February 28, 2018)

Note: The data post-2011 Q2 is in the base year 2011-12. For data, prior to 2011 Q2 we (IMA) have used yearly growth rates for those quarters, obtained from a series of a different base year. For example, the GDP of 2011 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (on 2004-05 base year) gives us the GDP of 2010 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year).

Recent Data Trend

Indian economy gathered momentum in the Oct-Dec quarter as the real GDP expanded by 7.2% YoY, fastest pace since the last five quarters. The figures for the third quarter were largely in line with market expectations and show that the economy is well on a recovery track. CSO has also revised upward the full year advanced estimates to 6.6%.

The contents of the growth breakdown show that a multi-quarter high of fixed capital formation at 12% YoY pulled up the GDP growth. Government spending also rose, however, private consumption weakened by one percentage point from the previous quarter to 5.6% YoY. Exports saw a modest growth, which was more than compensated by imports.

The gross value added (GVA) at basic prices, which excludes net indirect tax from the GDP, recorded a four-quarter high growth of 6.7% YoY during Oct-Dec 2017.A sectoral breakdown of the gross value added (GVA) figures pointed to a continued recovery in the industrial sector. The two most labour-intensive sectors of manufacturing and construction improved from the July-September quarter and contributed to the industry sector. Agriculture continued to post a positive but modest growth, mainly because of weak food inflation.

In our view, the third quarter figures should come as a relief to the Modi government and suggests that the shadows of demonetization and GST may be behind us. So what lies ahead? The most immediate challenge appears to be the public sector bank (PSB) recapitalization. Also, the growth slowdown in private consumption demand needs to be looked into. We believe there has to be more of capex driven recovery in order to sustain this growth. With inflation creeping up under the radar and given the growth momentum, RBI is expected to stay in pause mode in the upcoming policy meeting.

Brief Overview

Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product of India at constant (2011-12) prices is computed using expenditure approach to output. Under this approach, the output or GDP is the sum of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), government output or Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE), capital formation as indicated by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and Net Exports (Exports minus Imports).

As per UNSNA,1993, Valuables comprise of precious stones, metals, antiques and other valuable collections. Please click here for the detailed definition.

The Central Statistical Office under Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MOSPI) releases the official estimates of  GDP.  The National Accounts Division (NAD) under CSO is responsible for the preparation of national accounts, which includes Gross Domestic Product, Government and Private Final Consumption Expenditure, Gross Fixed Capital Formation and other macroeconomic aggregates.

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Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (Sector-wise)

Note: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (2011-12=100) shows the industry-wise value addition. All the components have been included. The Agriculture sector represents Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing category, the Industry Sector comprises of Manufacturing, Mining Quarrying, Electricity, Gas Water & Other Utilities and Construction. Services Sector comprises of all the service categories.

Non-government GVA is GVA excluding public administration, defence, and other services.

Next Release Date: May 31st, 2018

Per-Capita GDP of India

Note: To calculate real per capita GDP of India we have used the yearly population estimates of CSO and the yearly GDP of India from 2011-12 to 2016-17. For data, prior to 2011-12 we (IMA) have used growth rates for those years, obtained from a series of a different base year. For example, The GDP of 2011-12 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (from 2004-05 base year series) gives us the GDP of 2010(on the base of 2011-12). The real per capita GDP is then computed from the rebased data. The GDP deflator, which is the ratio of Real GDP to Nominal GDP is calculated from the extended rebased series of real GDP 2011-12 and nominal GDP.