India Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

India's GDP grows at the slowest pace since the Lehman crisis.

Published quarterly by CSO under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Updated till October-December 2019 (Published on February 28, 2020).

Note: The data post-2011 Q2 is in the base year 2011-12. For data, before 2011 Q2 we (IMA) have used yearly growth rates for those quarters, obtained from a series on a different base year. For example, the GDP of 2011 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (on 2004-05 base year) gives us the GDP of 2010 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year).

Recent Data Trend

India's GDP grew by 3.1% year-on-year (YoY) in January-March 2020 (FY20 represents April'19-March'20). It is the lowest growth recorded since January-March 2009. The growth in October-December 2019 stood at 4.7% YoY. The Indian economy has largely been affected by the global and local lockdowns imposed across countries to contain the spread of the Covid-19 (coronavirus) virus. While the shut down started in the last week of March in India, several business activities had to bear the impact of local disruptions. This only made things worse for India's already faltering economy.

The GDP growth for the full financial year reached 4.2% YoY after growing at 6.1% in the pervious year. 

While sluggishness is across the board, the biggest source for the slowdown came from gross fixed capital formation, a barometer for investment in the economy and private consumptio. Investments contracted by 6.5% YoY in Jan-Mar FY2019-20. We also see a fall in the contribution of investments to India's GDP by 2.6 percentage points in Jan-March 2020. A similar situation was last witnessed during the Lehman crisis, when contribution of investment to GDP fell to -3.28 percentage point in Jan-Mar 2009.

The private consumption (which accounts for 60% of GDP) component also witnessed notable decline in its growth rate by 2.7% YoY in Jan-Mar FY2019-20 compared to 6.6% YoY growth in the pervious quarter. The fall in private consumption since Jun-Sept 2018 has been contributing majorly to the continual fall in India's GDP.  However, it had shown some sign of improvement and added 3.9 percentage points to the overall GDP in the pervious quarter. Even this slight upturn was dealt with a severe blow due to the on-going pandemic. We see that its contribution to GDP fell to 1.5 percentage point in Jan-Mar 2020.

In terms of government expenditure, the government seems to be doing everything they can to drive overall economic output and demand. The contribution of government expenditure to GDP has not fallen much in Jan-March 2020 (1.2% points) compared to Sep-Dec 2020 (1.3% points). But, it remains low when compared to the years 2008 and 2009 following the Lehman crisis. 

The pickup in economic activity is contingent upon how long it will take for each sector to return to normalcy. Constraint in consumption demand can be expected to continue for few more quarters given the high unemployment rate and lower income levels. The government will have to continue to play a crucial role for the revival of the economy. 

Brief Overview

Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product of India at constant (2011-12) prices is computed using expenditure approach to output. Under this approach, the output or GDP is the sum of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), government output or Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE), capital formation as indicated by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and Net Exports (Exports minus Imports).

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The Central Statistical Office under the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MOSPI) releases the official estimates of  GDP.  The National Accounts Division (NAD) under CSO is responsible for the preparation of national accounts, which includes Gross Domestic Product, Government and Private Final Consumption Expenditure, Gross Fixed Capital Formation and other macroeconomic aggregates.

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Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (Sector-wise)

Note: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (2011-12=100) shows the value addition at the industry level. All the components have been included. The Agriculture sector represents the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing category; the Industry Sector comprises of Manufacturing, Mining Quarrying, Electricity, Gas Water & Other Utilities and Construction. Services Sector comprises of all the service categories.

Non-government GVA is GVA excluding public administration, defence, and other services.

Next Release Date: August 31, 2020

Per-Capita GDP of India

Note: To calculate real per capita GDP of India we have used the yearly population estimates of CSO and the yearly GDP of India from 2011-12 to 2016-17. For data, before 2011-12 we (IMA) have used growth rates for those years, obtained from a series on a different base year. For example, The GDP of 2011-12 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (from 2004-05 base year series) gives us the GDP of 2010(on the base of 2011-12). The real per capita GDP is then computed from the rebased data. The GDP deflator, which is the ratio of Real GDP to Nominal GDP is calculated from the extended rebased series of real GDP 2011-12 and nominal GDP.

Gross Domestic Product-Annual

Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10. with 2011-12 as the base year for the entire series.

National Savings

Note: Data prior to 2011 is on 2004-05 base year methodology. The data 2011 and onwards is on 2011-12 base year methodology.

Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10.