India Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Improvement in private consumption not sufficient to end India's economic slowdown.

Published quarterly by CSO under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Updated till October-December 2019 (Published on February 28, 2020).

Note: The data post-2011 Q2 is in the base year 2011-12. For data, before 2011 Q2 we (IMA) have used yearly growth rates for those quarters, obtained from a series on a different base year. For example, the GDP of 2011 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (on 2004-05 base year) gives us the GDP of 2010 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year).

Recent Data Trend

India's GDP growth marginally improved to 4.7% YoY in the Sep-Dec quarter of Fiscal Year 2019-20 from a five-year low of 4.5% YoY in the previous quarter. This marked a reversal in the declining trend in GDP numbers since Jan-Mar quarter of 2018 and was in line with market expectations. It was primarily led by a narrow pick-up in private consumption and a statistical boost from a sharp contraction in imports.

The fall in private consumption since Jun-Sept 2018 contributed majorly to the continual fall in India's GDP. However, its contribution to India's GDP has started to improve narrowly since the last quarter and added 3.4% points to the overall GDP growth this quarter. But it remains weak when compared to the period of India's high growth years. Also, the seasonally adjusted value fell to 1.4% QoQ as against 2.6% QoQ in the last quarter, suggesting it is still not sufficient to boost the economy's GDP for a longer period.

Except for private consumption, other GDP components continues to see a slowdown, suggesting a longer wait for recovery in GDP growth. Especially deceleration in investment (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) has been a matter of concern as investments saw it's biggest fall of -5.2% YoY since the post-Lehman crisis. In terms of its contribution to GDP, it has drastically reduced from 4.3 percentage points in Apr-June 2018 to -1.7 percentage points in the latest quarter.

At this backdrop, a narrow improvement in private consumption doesn't seem to be sufficient to offset the sluggishness across the board, especially the slowdown in investment demand. Also, the recovery in growth looks difficult with rising concerns over the impact of Covid-19 outbreak, though the extent of its impact on India's supply-side remains uncertain.

Brief Overview

Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product of India at constant (2011-12) prices is computed using expenditure approach to output. Under this approach, the output or GDP is the sum of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), government output or Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE), capital formation as indicated by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and Net Exports (Exports minus Imports).

As per UNSNA,1993, Valuables comprise of precious stones, metals, antiques and other valuable collections. Please click here for the detailed definition.

The Central Statistical Office under the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MOSPI) releases the official estimates of  GDP.  The National Accounts Division (NAD) under CSO is responsible for the preparation of national accounts, which includes Gross Domestic Product, Government and Private Final Consumption Expenditure, Gross Fixed Capital Formation and other macroeconomic aggregates.

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Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (Sector-wise)

Note: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (2011-12=100) shows the value addition at the industry level. All the components have been included. The Agriculture sector represents the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing category; the Industry Sector comprises of Manufacturing, Mining Quarrying, Electricity, Gas Water & Other Utilities and Construction. Services Sector comprises of all the service categories.

Non-government GVA is GVA excluding public administration, defence, and other services.

Next Release Date: May 29, 2020

Per-Capita GDP of India

Note: To calculate real per capita GDP of India we have used the yearly population estimates of CSO and the yearly GDP of India from 2011-12 to 2016-17. For data, before 2011-12 we (IMA) have used growth rates for those years, obtained from a series on a different base year. For example, The GDP of 2011-12 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (from 2004-05 base year series) gives us the GDP of 2010(on the base of 2011-12). The real per capita GDP is then computed from the rebased data. The GDP deflator, which is the ratio of Real GDP to Nominal GDP is calculated from the extended rebased series of real GDP 2011-12 and nominal GDP.

Gross Domestic Product-Annual

Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10. with 2011-12 as the base year for the entire series.

National Savings

Note: Data prior to 2011 is on 2004-05 base year methodology. The data 2011 and onwards is on 2011-12 base year methodology.

Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10.