India Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Investment-led growth continues as real GDP grew by 7.7% YoY in Jan-Mar'18.

Published monthly by CSO under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Updated until the January-March 2018 quarter. (Published on May 31, 2018)

Note: The data post-2011 Q2 is in the base year 2011-12. For data, before 2011 Q2 we (IMA) have used yearly growth rates for those quarters, obtained from a series of a different base year. For example, the GDP of 2011 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (on 2004-05 base year) gives us the GDP of 2010 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year).

Recent Data Trend

The Indian economy grew at its fastest pace in the last seven quarters in Jan-Mar'18 (Q4FY18). The real GDP grew by 7.7% year-on-year (YoY), supported by robust growth in investment. The investment demand as measured by gross fixed capital formation, grew at a five-quarter high pace of 9.1% YoY, recovering from a three-year low of 0.8% YoY in Apr-Jun'17.

The growth in the last quarter beat the market expectations of 7.3% YoY growth (Reuter's poll) by a significant margin. The 7.7% YoY growth in Q4FY18, took India's annual real GDP growth for FY2018 to 6.7% YoY, albeit lower than the 7.1% YoY in FY2017. 

This is welcome news for the government which had been facing criticisms over the slowdown in growth due to demonetization and GST. Since the growth recovery has been investment led it also sends out a positive message to the investors. Over the last few years, investment has generally remained muted.

Government consumption expenditure supported the GDP growth and recorded a three-quarter high growth of 16.8% YoY in Q4FY18. Private consumption recovered slightly and grew by 6.7% YoY in Q4FY18, following a consecutive slowdown in the first three quarters, reaching a low of 5.7% YoY in Q3FY18.

However, external concerns pose some threat to the sustainability of the growth recovery taking place. Major concerns are the slowdown in export growth along with rising import growth and rising crude oil prices. The export growth slowed down for the third consecutive quarter to a six-quarter low of 3.6% YoY during Jan-Mar'18, while imports continued to grow at a healthy pace of 10.9%. The prevailing trade tensions globally might exacerbate this concern. Further, the rising crude oil prices have a bearing on consumer demand and can shave off growth.

In light of the above developments, we continue to stick to our long-held view on the monetary policy. With growth concerns having eliminated to a great extent and inflation on the rise, we expect the RBI to turn hawkish and go for its first rate hike in over four years by Aug'18 policy meet.

Brief Overview

Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product of India at constant (2011-12) prices is computed using expenditure approach to output. Under this approach, the output or GDP is the sum of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), government output or Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE), capital formation as indicated by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and Net Exports (Exports minus Imports).

As per UNSNA,1993, Valuables comprise of precious stones, metals, antiques and other valuable collections. Please click here for the detailed definition.

The Central Statistical Office under the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MOSPI) releases the official estimates of  GDP.  The National Accounts Division (NAD) under CSO is responsible for the preparation of national accounts, which includes Gross Domestic Product, Government and Private Final Consumption Expenditure, Gross Fixed Capital Formation and other macroeconomic aggregates.

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Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (Sector-wise)

Note: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (2011-12=100) shows the industry-wise value addition. All the components have been included. The Agriculture sector represents the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing category; the Industry Sector comprises of Manufacturing, Mining Quarrying, Electricity, Gas Water & Other Utilities and Construction. Services Sector comprises of all the service categories.

Non-government GVA is GVA excluding public administration, defence, and other services.

Next Release Date: August 31st, 2018

Per-Capita GDP of India

Note: To calculate real per capita GDP of India we have used the yearly population estimates of CSO and the yearly GDP of India from 2011-12 to 2016-17. For data, before 2011-12 we (IMA) have used growth rates for those years, obtained from a series of a different base year. For example, The GDP of 2011-12 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (from 2004-05 base year series) gives us the GDP of 2010(on the base of 2011-12). The real per capita GDP is then computed from the rebased data. The GDP deflator, which is the ratio of Real GDP to Nominal GDP is calculated from the extended rebased series of real GDP 2011-12 and nominal GDP.

Nominal GDP-Annual

Real GDP- Annual

National Savings

Note: Data prior to 2011 is on 2004-05 base year methodology. The data 2011 and onwards is on 2011-12 base year methodology.