September 15 2017

India Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real GDP growth slumped to a three year low of 5.7% YoY during April-June 2017.

Published monthly by CSO under Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Updated till the April-June 2017 quarter. (Published on August 31st, 2017)

Note: The data post-2011 Q2 is on the base year 2011-12. For data, prior to 2011 Q2 we (IMA) have used yearly growth rates for those quarters, obtained from a series of a different base year. For example, the GDP of 2011 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (on 2004-05 base year) gives us the GDP of 2010 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year).

Recent Data Trend

India's Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth fell to a three year low of 5.7% YoY during April-June 2017, from 7.9% growth in the corresponding period a year ago. 

The growth numbers undershot market expectations of 6.6% YoY (Reuters Poll). The slump in the real GDP growth was led by private consumption which grew at a pace of 6.6% YoY, lowest in the last six quarters. In addition, government consumption grew by only 17.2% YoY as against a 31.9% YoY growth in the previous quarter.

Further, a significant growth in imports to the tune of 13.4% YoY and a five quarter low export growth of just 1.2% YoY, depressed the GDP growth. The recent appreciation of INR against USD did hurt exports and made imports cheaper. The rupee appreciated by 4.5% against USD in the first six months of 2017.

On the supply side, the growth of Real Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices slowed down to 5.5% YoY during April-June 2017 from a 7.6% growth in the corresponding period last year.

The slowdown in growth was brought about by the manufacturing sector which grew at the slowest pace in 5 years. The manufacturing growth tumbled to 1.2% YoY in the first quarter of the current fiscal year compared to a 10.7% YoY growth in the year ago period. Even the mining (contracted by 0.7% YoY) and construction (2% YoY from 3.1% year ago) took a hit due to cash and credit squeeze following demonetization. The slowdown in manufacturing was due to the destocking activities, undertaken by the manufacturers ahead of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). The destocking came with huge discounts by firms hurting their quarterly earnings. However, the services sector continued to perform, registering a year-high growth of 8.72% YoY.

The temporary shock of demonetization and confusion ahead of the GST rollout in July seems responsible for the fall in the GDP growth to a new low.

The slump in GDP growth comes after the RBI's annual report 2016-17 laid out information which exposed the ineffectiveness of the demonetization move. As per RBI's annual report, almost 99% of the demonetized currency returned to the banking system. Both these events will be a setback for the government which was expecting demonetization to have a transient effect on the slowdown in GDP.

Brief Overview

Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product of India at constant (2011-12) prices is computed using expenditure approach to output. Under this approach, the output or GDP is the sum of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), government output or Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE), capital formation as indicated by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and Net Exports (Exports less Imports).

As per UNSNA,1993, Valuables comprise of precious stones, metals, antiques and other valuable collections. Please click here for the detailed definition.

The Central Statistical Office under Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MOSPI) releases the official estimates of  GDP.  The National Accounts Division (NAD) under CSO is responsible for the preparation of national accounts, which includes Gross Domestic Product, Government and Private Final Consumption Expenditure, Gross Fixed Capital Formation and other macroeconomic aggregates.

For more information please visit the official website.

Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (Sector-wise)

Note: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (2011-12=100) shows the industry-wise value addition. All the components have been included. The Agriculture sector represents Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing category, the Industry Sector comprises of Manufacturing, Mining Quarrying, Electricity, Gas Water & Other Utilities and Construction. Services Sector comprises of all the service categories.

Next Release Date: November 31st, 2017

Per-Capita GDP of India

Note: To calculate real per capita GDP of India we have used the yearly population estimates of CSO and the yearly GDP of India from 2011-12 to 2016-17. For data, prior to 2011-12 we (IMA) have used growth rates for those years, obtained from a series of a different base year. For example, The GDP of 2011-12 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (from 2004-05 base year series) gives us the GDP of 2010(on the base of 2011-12). The real per capita GDP is then computed from the rebased data. The GDP deflator, which is the ratio of Real GDP to Nominal GDP is calculated from the extended rebased series of real GDP 2011-12 and nominal GDP.