Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

India's GDP growth further slumped to a 6-year low of 5% in June quarter 2020.

Published quarterly by CSO under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Updated till April-June 2019 (Published on August 30, 2019).

Note: The data post-2011 Q2 is in the base year 2011-12. For data, before 2011 Q2 we (IMA) have used yearly growth rates for those quarters, obtained from a series on a different base year. For example, the GDP of 2011 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (on 2004-05 base year) gives us the GDP of 2010 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year).

Recent Data Trend

India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slipped further to 5% YoY in Q1: 2019-20, regardless of the monetary easing and the measures announced so far by the government to support the economy. The six-year low growth of 5%, was primarily driven by weaker growth in private consumption and manufacturing. Given the indications witnessed by the economy in the past few months, the growth in GDP was expected to be slow. However, it is far below the market estimates of 5.7% YoY. (Reuters poll). The Reserve Bank earlier in its August policy, marginally lowered the GDP growth projection for 2019-20 to 6.9% from 7% projected in June previously.

The growth in private final consumption expenditure which is the mainstay of economic growth in India continued to fall and reached a 9-quarter low of 3.1% YoY in Q1:2019-20. A lower rural income due to a sharp fall in food inflation in most of the last fiscal year may be the key reason behind slowdown in private consumption. However, a favourable monsoon so far this year and a turnaround in food inflation could lead to improved rural income. This, coupled with the festive season in the coming months, is expected to bring some pickup in the domestic demand.

In terms of output growth, the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices declined to 4.9% YoY in Q1FY19 as against 7.7% YoY in the year-ago period. The slowdown was led by a lower growth in manufacturing, agriculture, and construction activity. The GVA from manufacturing sector growth came to as low as 0.6% YoY.

We believe that trade wars and the global slowdown will continue to provide headwinds to India's economic growth. However, the slew of measures introduced by RBI and the government has signalled the government's intention to revive the economy. Given the seasonal factors and the favourable base effects in H2:2019-20, the pace of expansion in GDP growth is expected to rise in subsequent quarters. Still, at least 8% growth would be needed in the last two quarters to reach the RBI's set target of 6.9% for 2019-20, which seems like an uphill task.

Brief Overview

Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product of India at constant (2011-12) prices is computed using expenditure approach to output. Under this approach, the output or GDP is the sum of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), government output or Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE), capital formation as indicated by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and Net Exports (Exports minus Imports).

As per UNSNA,1993, Valuables comprise of precious stones, metals, antiques and other valuable collections. Please click here for the detailed definition.

The Central Statistical Office under the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MOSPI) releases the official estimates of  GDP.  The National Accounts Division (NAD) under CSO is responsible for the preparation of national accounts, which includes Gross Domestic Product, Government and Private Final Consumption Expenditure, Gross Fixed Capital Formation and other macroeconomic aggregates.

For more information, please visit the official website.

Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (Sector-wise)

Note: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (2011-12=100) shows the value addition at the industry level. All the components have been included. The Agriculture sector represents the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing category; the Industry Sector comprises of Manufacturing, Mining Quarrying, Electricity, Gas Water & Other Utilities and Construction. Services Sector comprises of all the service categories.

Non-government GVA is GVA excluding public administration, defence, and other services.

Next Release Date: November 29th, 2019

Per-Capita GDP of India

Note: To calculate real per capita GDP of India we have used the yearly population estimates of CSO and the yearly GDP of India from 2011-12 to 2016-17. For data, before 2011-12 we (IMA) have used growth rates for those years, obtained from a series on a different base year. For example, The GDP of 2011-12 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (from 2004-05 base year series) gives us the GDP of 2010(on the base of 2011-12). The real per capita GDP is then computed from the rebased data. The GDP deflator, which is the ratio of Real GDP to Nominal GDP is calculated from the extended rebased series of real GDP 2011-12 and nominal GDP.

Nominal GDP-Annual

Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10. with 2011-12 as the base year for the entire series.  

Real GDP- Annual

Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10. with 2011-12 as the base year for the entire series.  

National Savings

Note: Data prior to 2011 is on 2004-05 base year methodology. The data 2011 and onwards is on 2011-12 base year methodology. 
Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10.