India Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

India's Real GDP rebounds to a 6.3% YoY growth during July-September 2017 from a 13-quarter low growth of 5.7% YoY in the previous quarter.

Published monthly by CSO under Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Updated until the July-September 2017 quarter. (Published on November 30th, 2017)

Note: The data post-2011 Q2 is in the base year 2011-12. For data, prior to 2011 Q2 we (IMA) have used yearly growth rates for those quarters, obtained from a series of a different base year. For example, the GDP of 2011 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (on 2004-05 base year) gives us the GDP of 2010 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year).

Recent Data Trend

India's Real GDP accelerates to 6.3% YoY during July-September 2017, recovering from a five-quarter slide and a 13-quarter low growth of 5.7% YoY in the previous quarter. The growth numbers were virtually similar to the market expectations. A Reuter's poll of economists had predicted a growth rate of 6.4% YoY.

Capital investment as depicted by fixed capital formation, recorded a 5-quarter high growth of 4.7% YoY during July-September 2017, after a mere 1.6% YoY growth in the previous quarter. However, growth in private consumption slowed down to a 2-year low of 6.5% YoY and government expenditure fell to a six-quarter low growth of 4.1% YoY during July-September 2017.

The gross value added (GVA) at basic prices, which excludes net indirect tax from the GDP, recorded a 3-quarter high growth of 6.1% YoY during July-September 2017. This marked a sound acceleration from the 5.6% growth in the previous quarter. The growth was led by the industry sector performance which grew by 5.8% YoY, a sharp swing from a 5-year low growth of 1.6% YoY in the previous quarter. The impressive performance of the industrial sector was on account of a 4% YoY rise in the 8 core industries output, with electricity generation rising by 6.1% YoY during July-September 2017. Manufacturing grew by 2.2% YoY in the same period, an improvement from the 1.7% YoY growth in the previous quarter. Similarly, mining output grew by 7.2% YoY, rising from a paltry 1.2% YoY growth in the previous quarter.

However, the output growth of agricultural sector remained a cause of concern which fell to a 6-quarter low of 1.7% YoY. Growth in the services sector also slowed down to a 3-quarter low of 7.1% YoY, from a one-year high of 8.7% YoY in the previous quarter.

Overall, the recovery in growth to 6.3% YoY following a consecutive five quarter slide, reflects that the lingering effect of demonetization and the knee-jerk effect of GST may have waned off. The revival of growth from a 13-quarter low is something to cheer about, although few above-stated concerns still remain. In our view, the infusion of Rs.2.1 trillion to recapitalize the PSBs laded with NPAs is a step in the right direction to fix the twin-balance sheet problem as it is likely to revive the long-muted investment activity, thereby accelerating the economic growth.

Brief Overview

Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product of India at constant (2011-12) prices is computed using expenditure approach to output. Under this approach, the output or GDP is the sum of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), government output or Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE), capital formation as indicated by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and Net Exports (Exports less Imports).

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The Central Statistical Office under Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MOSPI) releases the official estimates of  GDP.  The National Accounts Division (NAD) under CSO is responsible for the preparation of national accounts, which includes Gross Domestic Product, Government and Private Final Consumption Expenditure, Gross Fixed Capital Formation and other macroeconomic aggregates.

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Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (Sector-wise)

Note: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (2011-12=100) shows the industry-wise value addition. All the components have been included. The Agriculture sector represents Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing category, the Industry Sector comprises of Manufacturing, Mining Quarrying, Electricity, Gas Water & Other Utilities and Construction. Services Sector comprises of all the service categories.

Next Release Date: February 28th, 2018

Per-Capita GDP of India

Note: To calculate real per capita GDP of India we have used the yearly population estimates of CSO and the yearly GDP of India from 2011-12 to 2016-17. For data, prior to 2011-12 we (IMA) have used growth rates for those years, obtained from a series of a different base year. For example, The GDP of 2011-12 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (from 2004-05 base year series) gives us the GDP of 2010(on the base of 2011-12). The real per capita GDP is then computed from the rebased data. The GDP deflator, which is the ratio of Real GDP to Nominal GDP is calculated from the extended rebased series of real GDP 2011-12 and nominal GDP.