India Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Weak Investment and negative exports further deepen India's economic slowdown.

Published quarterly by CSO under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Updated till July-September 2019 (Published on November 29, 2019).

Note: The data post-2011 Q2 is in the base year 2011-12. For data, before 2011 Q2 we (IMA) have used yearly growth rates for those quarters, obtained from a series on a different base year. For example, the GDP of 2011 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (on 2004-05 base year) gives us the GDP of 2010 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year).

Recent Data Trend

India's GDP growth further slowed down to 4.5% YoY in July-September quarter of Fiscal Year 2020 (FY2020 represents the period April 2019-March 2020), witnessing the weakest growth since January-March FY2014. When seasonally adjusted, we notice that the real GDP growth for July-September marginally grew to 1.1% QoQ as compared to 0.9% QoQ in the previous quarter, confirming the slow pace of growth in the economy. The decline in GDP for this quarter was primarily led by weak investment and contraction in export growth.

Indian economy has been continuously slowing down since January-March 2018. Although the sluggishness is across the board, gross fixed capital formation, a barometer for investment in the economy, is the biggest source of the slowdown. Gross fixed capital formation contributed 3.6 percentage points to GDP growth in January-March 2018, which has now drastically reduced to 0.33 percentage points in the latest quarter.

Exports, another major contributing factor to the slowdown, was supporting the growth in 2018, but ever since the beginning of 2019, the contribution of exports has greatly weakened. The latest quarter witnessed a negative growth of -0.4% YoY for the first time in three years. The contraction in exports was mainly on account of shrinkage in exports of engineering goods, jems & jewellery and petroleum products, which had been leading the basket of merchandise exports since early this fiscal year. India witnessed negative growth in exports to its major trading partners, the European Union (-6.4% YoY) and US (-0.5% YoY) in the July-September quarter.

On the other hand, Private consumption, which was a major contributor to the slowdown in the previous quarter, has shown signs of growth in this quarter, adding 2.8 percentage points to the GDP growth. It, however, remains weak, which is indeed worrying as its revival is vital for the investment to pick up.

At this backdrop, with growth in eight core industries contracting by 5.8% YoY for the third consecutive month in October and credit supply and domestic demand remaining lackluster, we believe the recovery in GDP is unlikely in October-December 2019. Also, six-year low GDP growth will certainly make the RBI cut rate in its next policy meet on 5th December. However, the quantum of the rate cut will depend upon the flexibility of RBI in dealing with retail inflation, which has breached its medium-term target of 4% in October 2019.

Brief Overview

Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product of India at constant (2011-12) prices is computed using expenditure approach to output. Under this approach, the output or GDP is the sum of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), government output or Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE), capital formation as indicated by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and Net Exports (Exports minus Imports).

As per UNSNA,1993, Valuables comprise of precious stones, metals, antiques and other valuable collections. Please click here for the detailed definition.

The Central Statistical Office under the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MOSPI) releases the official estimates of  GDP.  The National Accounts Division (NAD) under CSO is responsible for the preparation of national accounts, which includes Gross Domestic Product, Government and Private Final Consumption Expenditure, Gross Fixed Capital Formation and other macroeconomic aggregates.

For more information, please visit the official website.

Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (Sector-wise)

Note: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (2011-12=100) shows the value addition at the industry level. All the components have been included. The Agriculture sector represents the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing category; the Industry Sector comprises of Manufacturing, Mining Quarrying, Electricity, Gas Water & Other Utilities and Construction. Services Sector comprises of all the service categories.

Non-government GVA is GVA excluding public administration, defence, and other services.

Next Release Date: February 28th, 2019

Per-Capita GDP of India

Note: To calculate real per capita GDP of India we have used the yearly population estimates of CSO and the yearly GDP of India from 2011-12 to 2016-17. For data, before 2011-12 we (IMA) have used growth rates for those years, obtained from a series on a different base year. For example, The GDP of 2011-12 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (from 2004-05 base year series) gives us the GDP of 2010(on the base of 2011-12). The real per capita GDP is then computed from the rebased data. The GDP deflator, which is the ratio of Real GDP to Nominal GDP is calculated from the extended rebased series of real GDP 2011-12 and nominal GDP.

Nominal GDP-Annual

Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10. with 2011-12 as the base year for the entire series.  

Real GDP- Annual

Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10. with 2011-12 as the base year for the entire series.  

National Savings

Note: Data prior to 2011 is on 2004-05 base year methodology. The data 2011 and onwards is on 2011-12 base year methodology. 
Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10.