India Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Growth slowdown worsens as January-March'19 GDP growth falls to a five year low.

Published monthly by CSO under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Updated until the January-March 2019 quarter. (Published on May 31, 2019)

Note: The data post-2011 Q2 is in the base year 2011-12. For data, before 2011 Q2 we (IMA) have used yearly growth rates for those quarters, obtained from a series on a different base year. For example, the GDP of 2011 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (on 2004-05 base year) gives us the GDP of 2010 Q2 (on 2011-12 base year).

Recent Data Trend

Indian economy grew at its slowest pace since the past five years in January-March'19 quarter, registering a 5.8% YoY growth. The slowdown was due to muted growth in agriculture (-0.1% YoY growth), construction (7.1% YoY growth) and manufacturing (3.1% YoY growth). The 5.8% YoY growth in Q4FY19 took India's annual growth for FY2019 to 6.8% YoY compared with 7% YoY as projected in the second advanced estimates by the Central Statistical Organisation. The Q4 FY19 growth undershot the market expectations of 6.3% YoY (Reuters poll).

Capital investment as indicated by fixed capital formation, recorded a slip in growth to 3.6% YoY compared with the double-digit growth in the previous quarter. Growth in private consumption continued to indicate signs of slowdown from 8.4% YoY in Q3 FY2019 to 7.2% YoY in the last quarter of FY2019. Private Final consumption has been affected on account of stress in the non-banking financial company (NBFC) sector. The government final consumption expenditure also expanded at a lower 13.1% YoY during January-March'19 than the 15.1% YoY growth seen during January-March'18.

In terms of output growth, the gross value added (GVA) declined to 5.7% YoY led by a slowdown in manufacturing, agricultural and construction activity. The agricultural sector contracted by -0.1% YoY compared with 3.6% YoY growth seen in the previous quarter mainly on account of uneven distribution of monsoons. The decline in manufacturing growth to 3.1% YoY during January-March'19 impacted the overall output of the industrial segment. However, the financial services continued to grow at a 9.5% in Q4 FY2019 on account of pick up in bank credit.

With this, what is clear is that the newly formed government will have to provide stimulus to address the lower-than-expected growth. Although it has limited fiscal space, with the current economic conditions, the government might go easy on its fiscal consolidation path. In the near-term, the growth outlook is likely to improve only marginally in FY20.

Brief Overview

Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product of India at constant (2011-12) prices is computed using expenditure approach to output. Under this approach, the output or GDP is the sum of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), government output or Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE), capital formation as indicated by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and Net Exports (Exports minus Imports).

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The Central Statistical Office under the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MOSPI) releases the official estimates of  GDP.  The National Accounts Division (NAD) under CSO is responsible for the preparation of national accounts, which includes Gross Domestic Product, Government and Private Final Consumption Expenditure, Gross Fixed Capital Formation and other macroeconomic aggregates.

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Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (Sector-wise)

Note: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (2011-12=100) shows the value addition at the industry level. All the components have been included. The Agriculture sector represents the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing category; the Industry Sector comprises of Manufacturing, Mining Quarrying, Electricity, Gas Water & Other Utilities and Construction. Services Sector comprises of all the service categories.

Non-government GVA is GVA excluding public administration, defence, and other services.

Next Release Date: August 30th, 2019

Per-Capita GDP of India

Note: To calculate real per capita GDP of India we have used the yearly population estimates of CSO and the yearly GDP of India from 2011-12 to 2016-17. For data, before 2011-12 we (IMA) have used growth rates for those years, obtained from a series on a different base year. For example, The GDP of 2011-12 (on 2011-12 base year) and its year on year growth rate (from 2004-05 base year series) gives us the GDP of 2010(on the base of 2011-12). The real per capita GDP is then computed from the rebased data. The GDP deflator, which is the ratio of Real GDP to Nominal GDP is calculated from the extended rebased series of real GDP 2011-12 and nominal GDP.

Nominal GDP-Annual

Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10. with 2011-12 as the base year for the entire series.  

Real GDP- Annual

Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10. with 2011-12 as the base year for the entire series.  

National Savings

Note: Data prior to 2011 is on 2004-05 base year methodology. The data 2011 and onwards is on 2011-12 base year methodology. 
Note: The years in the graph represent the fiscal year, for instance, the year 2009 represents the period Apr'09-Mar'10.