India's trade deficit widens to 5-month high of USD 15.33 billion as exports growth lose momentum in April.

India's trade deficit widened to a five-month high of USD 15.3 billion in April 2019 from USD 10.89 billion in the previous month. The significant expansion in the trade balance was due to a 4-month low growth in exports and 5-month high growth in imports in April. The merchandise exports lost its growth momentum after reaching 11.6% YoY growth in March. We feel, the worsening of trade balance due to sluggishness in export growth is not a good sign and the new government must take steps to revive the export sector. (May 16, 2019)

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Uptrend in currency in circulation aggregated to 14.2% of GDP may be due to elections by end-April'19.

RBI Balance Sheet contains the assets and liabilities position of the Reserve Bank of India. The balance sheet gives a fair amount of idea of the components of money supply such as notes in circulation and deposits with banks in the economy. The notes in circulation recorded an unprecedented plummet of 33.6% MoM in November 2016, after the demonetization move of the government. Following this, 86% of the total currency in circulation ceased to...

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RBI moderately holds back on total Money supply at 9.6% by end-April'19.


In India, the measures and definition of money stock have continuously evolved since independence (1947). The First Working Group 1961 (FWG) of RBI for the first time threw some light on the concept of money supply in India emphasizing the role of money as a liquid asset and a medium of exchange.

Later on, in 1977 the Second Working Group (SWG) of RBI developed four measures of money stock M1, M2, M3, and M4. However, with the advent of n...

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India's trade deficit widens to 5-month high of USD 15.33 billion as exports growth lose momentum in April.

India's trade deficit widened to a five-month high of USD 15.3 billion in April 2019 from USD 10.89 billion in the previous month. The significant expansion in the trade balance was due to a four-month low growth in exports and five-month high growth in imports in April. The merchandise exports lost its growth momentum after increasing to its best monthly performance of 11.6% YoY in March by declining to 1.67% in April. The merchandise imports...

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Forex reserves surged to USD 418.7 billion by end-April led by a rise in foreign currency assets.


Foreign Exchange Reserves of India consists of cash, gold, bonds, bank deposits and financial assets denominated in foreign currencies. (Primarily US dollars in the forms of US treasury bonds and institutional bonds).

Even though India is the largest gold-consuming nation, the share of gold in total forex reserves is much less than most developed nations. The share of gold in total forex reserves has fallen from 78% prior to liberalizatio...

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May 14, 2019

Twitter Analysis

Twitter mentions of both BJP and Congress declining as we head to the final week of elections.

India's final ballot will be cast on May 19, 2019, with results to come out on May 23, 2019. In these last few weeks left, we continue to see that on Twitter the mention of BJP and Congress is also closing in. The average count of tweets mentioning BJP and Congress have fallen to 21k and 18k compared to 33k and 28k respectively, in the corresponding week last month. In terms of hashtags, the top trending hashtags for BJP went back to #GoaMinin...

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