What's NewIndustrial production falls to 0.5% YoY in Nov'18, slowest since Jun'17.

The index of industrial production recorded a growth of 0.5% Year-on-Year (YoY) in Nov'18, a slowest since Jun'17, as against an eleven-month high growth of 8.1% YoY in the previous month. The abrupt slowdown is largely due to a sharp contraction in manufacturing sector along with unfavorable base effect. An unexpected fall in growth of industrial production, led by a contraction in manufacturing activity is a matter of concern for the economy. Contraction in manufacturing suggests that CSO advance estimate of 8.3% for the manufacturing sector in FY19 is a little optimistic. (January 11, 2019)

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India Balance of Trade

India's trade deficit narrowed down to a 10-month low of USD 13.08 billion in December

India's trade deficit narrowed to USD 13.08 billion, reaching a 10-month low, in Dec'18. The significant improvement in trade balance was mainly due to a fall in imports particularly a sharp decline in oil and gold imports. Imports contracted by 2.15% YoY in Dec'18 for the first time in almost 2-years. The fall in imports was largely due to the sharp fall in oil and gold imports. A contraction in imports of electronic goods also helped the merchandise imports to decline. The year-on-year grow...

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CPI hits an 18-month low of 2.19% YoY in Dec'18 on softening of food prices.

  India's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which has been falling since June this year, had reached a new low of 2.19% YoY in Dec'18. The headline inflation stood at 2.33% YoY in Nov'18 and 5.21% YoY in Dec'17. The 18-month low inflation came close to market expectation of 2.2% YoY (Bloomberg poll). The softening of the headline inflation continues to be primarily driven by deflation in food prices. The food inflation as measured by Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI), contracted for the third co...

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Lower fuel prices ease Wholesale inflation to an 8-month low of 3.8% in Dec'18.

The wholesale level inflation as measured by Wholesale Price Index, declined to an 8-month low of 3.8% YoY in Dec'18. WPI based inflation was 4.6% YoY in Nov'18 and 3.6% YoY in Dec'17. WPI inflation is much lower than the market expectation of 4.3% YoY (Bloomberg poll) and is in line with the declining trend in retail inflation. The sharper than anticipated decline is primarily due to softening of fuel and food prices. The inflation in fuel and power segment (with a weight of 13.2% in WPI) ha...

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India has more than adequate notes in circulation as it surges to 13.2% of GDP by 28 December 2018.

RBI Balance Sheet contains the assets and liabilities position of the Reserve Bank of India. The balance sheet gives a fair amount of idea of the components of money supply such as notes in circulation and deposits with banks in the economy. The notes in circulation recorded an unprecedented plummet of 33.6% MoM in November 2016, after the demonetization move of the government. Following this, 86% of the total currency in circulation ceased to be a legal tender. Banks were asked to accept depo...

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Industrial production falls to 0.5% YoY in Nov'18, a slowest since Jun'17.

The index of industrial production recorded a growth of 0.5% Year-on-Year (YoY) in Nov'18, a slowest since Jun'17, as against an eleven-month high growth of 8.1% YoY in the previous month. The abrupt slowdown is largely due to a sharp contraction in manufacturing sector along with unfavorable base effect. The growth is far below the market expectation of 3.5% YoY (Bloomberg poll). The manufacturing activity which constitutes more than three-fourths of the entire index contracted by 0.4% YoY i...

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